Re: VMs: No stats no fun

[Nick Pelling <incoming@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

Hi Gabriel,

At 11:14 09/08/2003 +0100, Gabriel Landini wrote:
> What makes the statement of "making stats useless" sound objectable is that
> it seems to imply unawareness of the relevance of the statistical properties
> of the vms.

Statistics does not equal causality. Statistical equals correlations. 
AFAICT, 91 years (or perhaps several hundred years, if you include Kircher, 
etc) of statistical analysis of the VMs have given us *not one* definitive 
correlation with an external statistical source - such as natural language, 
syllabic language, artificial language, cryptography, etc - that has had 
sufficient persuasive power to bring us to even a partial consensus.

TTBOMK, the strongest inferences drawn to date have been "suggestive of" 
one or other of these various categories, without being at all definitive. 
I have seen it argued (in one of my stats textbooks) that many of the 
central successes of human endeavour in the 20th Century came about 
directly as a result of statistical analysis & the emerging statistical 
mindset - how does the VMS continue to resist assaults from this otherwise 
fearsome analytical machinery?

Whether you like it or not, the manifest failure of our general statistical 
exercise to resolve even the most basic questions points to one of three 
conclusions:-
(a) the VMS is a truly strange beast which we are unable to categorise;
(b) the statistical process by which we collect information is somehow 
flawed; or
(c) the transcription we are using to apply stats analysis to the VMS is 
somehow flawed.

Broadly speaking, (a) points to a conceptual failure, (b) to a processual 
failure, and (c) to a representational failure. You seem to think I'm 
describing (b), when I'm actually describing (c). I think stats are great - 
but you have to be analysing the right thing for them to move you forward.

> Sounds like if you are intending to dismiss all currently gathered statstical
> information with an analysis that has not been done yet.

I'm developing a transcription methodology quite different from other ones 
that have been used, which is obvious "a road less travelled" - perhaps 
you'd prefer I didn't post anything further on this subject until I reach 
the destination?

Cheers, ....Nick Pelling.... 


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