Re: OT: Universe, was Re: VMs: Folio and Quire numbers

[Elmar Vogt <elvogt@xxxxxxxxxxx>]

Rene Zandbergen wrote:

> ...
> My pet peeve with the equation that estimates
> the number of planets with intelligent life in
> the universe (the Drake equation). 
> It is trying to do exactly that.
> What is the probability that life will come in 
> existence on a planet with the suitable conditions?

I think Drake's equation should be taken with a grain of salt -- rather as a 
general pointer to the numerous factors which are _at least_ necessary to 
find life, than as a means of determining that there currently are 2312 
civilizations in this galaxy.

> Or: someone has been playing around with an
> N-faced die (not necessarily 6). After a while
> he shows you that he has thrown a 1. What can
> you deduce about the probability of throwing a 1?

Exactly. Statistics begins with 3, as one of my old professors used to point 
out.

> Cheers, Rene 

Dito,

	Elmar

--
Elmar Vogt / Königswarterstr. 18 / 90762 Fürth / GERMANY
elvogt@xxxxxxxxxxx / Tel.: (++49/0)911 - 31 52 58
Agilmar von Sevelingen: VIS VISCERIS NON FERRE FERTUR (T.Doom)

"So ein bisschen Bildung ziert doch den ganzen Menschen." (H. Heine)


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