[Date Prev][Date Next][Thread Prev][Thread Next][Date Index][Thread Index]

Re: OT: Universe, was Re: VMs: Folio and Quire numbers

Rene Zandbergen wrote:

My pet peeve with the equation that estimates
the number of planets with intelligent life in
the universe (the Drake equation). It is trying to do exactly that.
What is the probability that life will come in existence on a planet with the suitable conditions?

I think Drake's equation should be taken with a grain of salt -- rather as a general pointer to the numerous factors which are _at least_ necessary to find life, than as a means of determining that there currently are 2312 civilizations in this galaxy.

Or: someone has been playing around with an
N-faced die (not necessarily 6). After a while
he shows you that he has thrown a 1. What can
you deduce about the probability of throwing a 1?

Exactly. Statistics begins with 3, as one of my old professors used to point out.

Cheers, Rene



Elmar Vogt / Königswarterstr. 18 / 90762 Fürth / GERMANY
elvogt@xxxxxxxxxxx / Tel.: (++49/0)911 - 31 52 58
Agilmar von Sevelingen: VIS VISCERIS NON FERRE FERTUR (T.Doom)

"So ein bisschen Bildung ziert doch den ganzen Menschen." (H. Heine)

______________________________________________________________________ To unsubscribe, send mail to majordomo@xxxxxxxxxxx with a body saying: unsubscribe vms-list