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Re: VMs: Gordon Rugg's study follow ups
Dear all,
I am not convinced that in the long run the "Rugg effect" will be that intense, if there is no further progress made in his demonstration.
He basically IMHO happened to demonstrate that there is a possibility of enciphering a VMS like text in using means available at the ad hoc time; his main thesis is that based upon this alleged fact VMS could be a hoax.
And so what? Could be or not, would William add (:-)). Moreover, he of course did not prove anything about the actual encipherment of VMS.
I am aware of the "gibbersih" conclusions in the media; but here there are solid arguments if I understood well that the highest probability is that there is a real language at work in VMS, would it be natural or artificial.
Keeping it short, cryptanalysts and linguists could I think easily argue against the overall outcome of the above study. Now, what could be the next step?
In that sort of situation, a non action is generally felt to be the easiest way. No denial, and the effects could vanish by themselves, opening a debate is not necessarily the adequate path, because to some extent it consolidates the current news "campaign".
However, this approach is not a scientifical one, and besides the fact that new discoveries on this field are possible every day (:-) ), which could hopefully counterbalance this mediatical event, I see roughly two additional possibilities:
The first one is a Cryptologia article, discussing Rugg's one, and if possible showing that there are more "stars in heaven than in his book of philosophy";
The second one is a coming book: Gladstones' one; after all, Kennedy and Churchill already mentionned G.R.s views (2004) and did not consider them as that definitive. Perhaps the next work (early 2005) on this topic will be a good opportunity for the authors and for the list to draw the attention upon the overall reality of this file, which exceeds by far one study or another.
Just some thoughts.
Regards,
Jean
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