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VMs: VMS as Hoax

Nick Pelling wrote:

IMO, there are two pragmatic ways to "prove" that the VMs is a hoax: (1)
unearth provenance information that implicates it directly as part of a
hoaxing scheme, and (2) reconstruct the method by which it was generated.

If the VMS is a hoax, I'm not sure that the fact that it exhibits structure necessarily implies that it was generated in a systematic way.

Jim Reeds raised this question in a conversation we had years ago in college, and suggested a possible test: write a number of pages of random text "off the cuff" (without using a formal system), trying to keep the "style" consistent throughout, then use statistical tests to see how consistent it actually was.

Another variation of this idea might be to write a number of pages of Voynich-like text this way (without programs, calculations, tables, written notes etc. and without copying or even looking at the VMS during the writing), but with the intention of making it as much like the VMS as possible. It would be permissible to look at the VMS a few minutes before the test, mentally noting common words, initials and finals, the distribution of word lengths etc., but not taking any written notes.

Then, once the pseudo-VM text was complete, it should be analyzed for letter frequencies, word length distribution, common words etc. and compared to actual VMS text; also, comparisons should be made between different parts of the pseudo-VM document for consisteny..

If this test produced a close fit, it might demonstrate that a formal system is not necessary. (Think of it as a "Kon-Tiki" like experiment - though unable to prove that there was no formal system, it would at least make that possibility plausible.)


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